Opex forecasting: how regulators set operating cost allowances and efficiency targets
A recorded course from MCC Economics on how regulators forecast, benchmark and regulate operating expenditure (opex) in utilities, from the base-step-trend method to efficiency sharing schemes, with examples from the Australian Energy Regulator and Ofgem.
Price Controls 150 is delivered by practitioners who model costs and price controls for regulators, governments and utilities.
Course lead
PJ McCloskey
Director, MCC Economics
PJ has worked on price controls from the regulator's side and for regulated companies, including RIIO-2 work with Ofgem and the Utility Regulator for Northern Ireland.
ACMA chartered management accountant
MSc Finance (Distinction), Birkbeck
Specialist in cost of capital and financial modelling
I heartily recommend PJ to anyone seeking input on the financial parameters that underpin different regulatory models.
James Veaney, Deputy Director, Electricity Sector Price Controls, Ofgem
Quick Answer
Price Controls 150 is a recorded course on how regulators forecast and set operating cost allowances for utilities. It explains why opex is forecast, how the base-step-trend method works, how benchmarking and audits test whether forecasts are credible, and how incentives such as the Australian Energy Regulator's Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme reward savings.
Key takeaways
Regulators forecast operating costs and set efficiency targets so customers pay only for efficient running costs.
The base-step-trend method builds a forecast from an efficient base year, step changes and a trend.
Benchmarking and audits are used to test whether a company's opex forecast is credible.
Incentives such as the Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme share savings between companies and customers.
What will you be able to do after the course?
You will be able to follow how an opex allowance is built and judge whether a forecast is credible. The course is built around three outcomes.
Forecast operating costs. Use the base-step-trend method and other forecasting tools regulators rely on.
Test credibility. Assess an opex forecast through efficiency benchmarking and audits.
Understand the incentives. How schemes such as the Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme reward efficiency over a price control.
What does the course cover?
The lecture explains what opex means in regulation and why it is forecast, then works through the tools regulators use.
Introduction
What is opex in a regulatory context?
Why forecast opex?
Forecasting, benchmarking and incentives: the base-step-trend method, efficiency benchmarking, audits and the Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme, with Australian Energy Regulator and Ofgem examples
What do the key terms mean?
These are the terms the course uses most, in plain English. Ofgem is the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets.
Term
Meaning
Operating expenditure (opex)
The day-to-day costs of running a network, such as staff, maintenance, repairs and computer systems.
Base-step-trend
A forecasting method that starts from an efficient base year, adds step changes and applies a trend.
Base year
A recent year of actual operating costs that the regulator judges to be efficient, used as the starting point.
Step change
An adjustment for a new or removed obligation, such as a new safety rule, that the base year does not reflect.
Trend
The expected yearly change in costs from input prices, growth in the network and productivity.
Efficiency benchmarking
Comparing a company's costs with those of similar companies, or with models of efficient cost, to set efficiency targets.
Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme
An Australian Energy Regulator incentive that lets a company keep the benefit of an efficiency saving for a set period, whichever year it is made, before it passes to customers.
RIIO-GD2
Ofgem's price control for gas distribution networks in Great Britain, running from 2021 to 2026.
Who is the course for?
It suits anyone who prepares, reviews or challenges operating cost forecasts for regulated networks.
Regulatory analysts and opex forecasters
Utility managers and finance professionals
Consultants and advisors in cost modelling
Researchers in public utility economics and regulation
Which courses should you take first?
Price Controls 150 follows the course on capital expenditure and leads into the course on incentive mechanisms.
MCC Economics advises regulators, government bodies and utilities on price controls in the United Kingdom and the Gulf, and its research also covers Australian network regulation. The firm was founded in London in 2017. Its regulatory economics work covers energy, water, aviation and infrastructure. You can read the team's background on the people page.
MCC Economics has helped us better understand the most important issues for our stakeholders, including: charges, shareholder returns, debt payments and inflation impacts.
Leila N. Nasr, Section Head, Department of Energy, Abu Dhabi
Questions buyers ask before registering
Who teaches Price Controls 150?
See the instructor profiles near the top of this page for the current teaching team and their experience.
Is there a live session?
No. Price Controls 150 is recorded course material only, so there is no meeting to attend. You get immediate access to the materials once you sign up.
What do I receive when I register?
A lecture video, annotated slides, a quiz to test your learning and a complete transcript.
What is the base-step-trend method?
A way of forecasting operating costs. It starts from actual spending in an efficient base year, adds step changes for new or removed obligations, and applies a trend for expected changes in input prices, output and productivity.
Which regulators does the course use as examples?
The Australian Energy Regulator, including its Efficiency Benefit Sharing Scheme, and Ofgem, including the RIIO-GD2 price control for gas distribution.