PJ McCloskey

Publications

AMP8: Ofwat's £104 billion PR24 final determination

Ofwat's PR24 final determination approves £104 billion for AMP8. What it funds, why water bills rise 51 per cent in cash terms, and what could stop delivery.

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Are Stock Returns Predictable? Evidence from 119 Years of Data

Are stock returns predictable? Analysis of 119 years of data shows long-term returns contain a predictable component linked to valuations and market fundamentals.

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Asset Health in the Water Sector: US Innovations for UK Challenges

UK water companies cannot say what condition their assets are in, and renewal money follows past failures. Four American practices that could close the gap.

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Battery big-bang: Abu Dhabi’s 400 MW tender and what it means for the grid Battery big-bang

EWEC’s 400 MW / 800 MWh battery tender explained: the 27 bidders, the UAE storage milestones behind it, and MCC’s AED 185/MWh clearing price scenario.

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Carbon Offsets: What the Evidence Says

MCC Economics' report for the UK Climate Change Committee summarising 56 responses on voluntary carbon offsets: the risks, the opportunities, and the case for stronger standards.

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Consumer engagement in energy regulation: ten fundamentals

Ten fundamentals from inside the Australian regulator, where appeals ran at 32 of 51 decisions until 2017 and attitude, not activity, decided outcomes.

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Cost of Capital in Regulation: 10 Hot Topics

Ten contested questions on the regulated cost of capital, from climate objectives to the market risk premium, across Australian, New Zealand and UK decisions.

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Developing Comprehensive Financial Models to Forecast ROI

Discover MCC’s guide to ROI forecasting, how to build financial models that stand up to scrutiny, capture uncertainty, and support better investment decisions.

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DEWA Smart Grid: Dubai Grid Losses and Customer Minutes Lost

DEWA reports 2% grid losses and 0.82 customer minutes lost for 2025. MCC tests the figures against World Bank data and explains the benchmarking limits.

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Disposable incomes across the UK: what they reveal about energy affordability in Northern Ireland?

Northern Ireland has the UK's lowest disposable income at 81% of the national average, with Derry 27% below. Explore what that means for energy affordability policy.

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Economic Impact Assessment: How much is a project really worth to the economy?

What an Economic Impact Assessment is, how direct, indirect and induced effects work, Type I and Type II multipliers, and worked examples from three economies.

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Electricity distribution privatisation in Great Britain: the Electricity Act 1989 and the initial price controls

Great Britain privatised electricity distribution in 1990, not 1989. The twelve Regional Electricity Companies were sold that December at 240 pence per share, with Retail Prices Index plus X price controls already written into their licences.

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Electricity North West Acquisition: Did Iberdrola Overpay?

Iberdrola paid £4.2bn for Electricity North West, 1.44 times its £2.9bn regulated asset value. MCC Economics tests the price against past UK deals.

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Electricity pricing reform in Australia: can it reward consumers instead of punishing them?

MCC’s submission on the AEMC’s electricity pricing review: nine strategic trade-offs, protecting vulnerable consumers, pairing prices with technology, and clear obligations on retailers.

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Evaluating Ofwat’s Innovation Fund

Ofwat's Innovation Fund convenes the water sector well, but successful trials still stall at procurement. What the £400m for 2025-30 must fix.

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Financial Modelling - Best Practice Guide

How to build a financial model a stranger can pick up and trust: planning, structure, colour conventions and formula rules, shown in published regulator models.

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Income and wealth inequality in the UK: what causes it and why does it matter?

What drives income and wealth inequality in the UK, how the UK compares with the USA and Ireland, and why less inequality would mean stronger growth and better health.

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Investment in Distributed Solar - A case for Abu Dhabi, UAE

Solar in Abu Dhabi makes electricity for about 12 fils a unit against a real grid cost of about 39. MCC sets out payback by customer type and the subsidy savings.

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Maximising Grid Capacity for High-Renewable Power Systems

How Britain, Abu Dhabi and Australia are adding grid capacity for renewables through transmission, demand response, battery storage and connection reform.

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Northern Ireland electricity costs: why the statistics disagree

ONS puts Northern Ireland top of all UK regions for electricity spend; BEIS and the Utility Regulator put it bottom. MCC tests four explanations for a £100m gap.

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Parallels and differences between the US and UK water sectors: what can the UK take from America?

America has 49,599 community water systems. England and Wales have fewer than 30. How the two sectors differ on regulation, ownership, prices and planning.

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Phoenix Energy: Was Belfast's gas network a bargain, or a warning about gas?

Explore MCC Economics’ analysis of the Phoenix Energy acquisition—a critical review of valuation, regulatory challenges, and the evolving energy landscape in Northern Ireland highlighting the risks and opportunities within the energy transition and the implications for investors in regulated utilities.

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PPP Contingent Liabilities: Are We Doing It Right?

How PPP contingent liabilities and government guarantees create fiscal risk, how Chile and South Africa manage them, and how guarantees are valued.

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PR24 WACC Review: £5.4bn Customer Question

MCC's review for CCW of Ofwat's PR24 cost of capital: why the allowance could have been 1.08 points lower, saving water customers £5.4 billion, about £41 per household a year.

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Quality business plans for the GB water sector

MCC Economics examines Ofwat’s PR19 business plan requirements, cost benchmarking, stakeholder consultation and the factors behind a high-quality water company plan.

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Rooftop or Solar Farms for Abu Dhabi?

Rooftop solar in Abu Dhabi costs about 12 fils per kWh against a 36 to 41 fils grid cost. MCC compares centralised and distributed solar, payback and subsidy.

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Should retailers or network companies roll out smart meters? MCC’s submission to Australia’s energy regulator

MCC’s submission on Australia’s smart meter rollout: the trade-offs, protecting vulnerable consumers, and the case for networks to lead over retailers.

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Sub-1¢/kWh Solar in Sight: Will the UAE Beat Its Own Record by 2027?

Explore the forces behind ultra-low solar tariffs and why Dubai’s next PV + storage auction could be the world’s first step below 1¢/kWh.

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The Role of Utilities in Demand-Side Management for Solar Integration

How utilities in Britain, Abu Dhabi and Australia pay, mandate and automate demand-side management so electricity use follows solar output, with the programme results and the regulation behind them.

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The UKIB: A New Force for Economic Growth?

The UK Infrastructure Bank has 22 billion pounds of debt, equity and guarantees. What it lends, to whom and at what price, and what changed when it became the National Wealth Fund.

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UK Water Resilience: Lessons from the US

The Independent Water Commission found poor asset data, fragmented planning and supply chain strain. How California, North Carolina and Wales have responded.

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What is the Five Case Model? A guide to how UK government business cases are built

MCC Economics explains the Five Case Model behind every UK government business case: the five tests, the funds that require it, and lessons from the Thames Tideway Tunnel.

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Which model predicts GDP best? A comparison of ARIMA, VAR and linear regression

Which model predicts UAE GDP best? MCC tested ARIMA, VAR and linear regression on data from 1975 to 2023: ARIMA wins long range, regression wins short range with good inputs.

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World's Largest Solar Desalination Plant

Dubai's Hassyan plant will be the world's largest solar-powered desalination facility: 818,000 m3 a day for 2 million people at a record 2.9 kWh/m3. MCC sets out the numbers.

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