Our Experience

MCC Economics delivers independent, evidence-based analysis across economics, finance, and regulation. With experience spanning energy, water, infrastructure, and public policy, the firm supports transparent and effective decision-making. Clients across the UK, Europe, and the Middle East benefit from rigorous analysis, financial modelling, and clear policy insight.

Filter by:
Clear
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

Publications

MCC Economics publishes independent analysis and commentary on issues at the intersection of economics, finance, and regulation. Our publications draw on experience from projects across energy, water, infrastructure, and public policy - providing evidence-based insights that support transparent, accountable, and effective decision-making.

Cost of Capital - 10 Hot Topics

Explore our publication which highlights 10 hot topics, from climate change objectives to market risk premiums, providing expert insights on how regulators and businesses navigate these critical financial considerations.

The cost of capital is a fundamental consideration in regulated industries, influencing investment decisions, regulatory outcomes, and financial stability. This publication explores 10 hot topics that are currently shaping cost of capital discussions, including climate change objectives, stability and predictability of regulatory approaches, diminishing comparator firms, and competition for the right to supply. It also examines emerging trends, such as the impact of large-scale investments in renewable energy and the challenges of estimating market risk premiums. Backed by extensive research and regulatory case studies from Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, this paper offers valuable insights for policymakers, industry professionals, and investors.

Cost of capital plays a crucial role in determining regulated revenues, investment attractiveness, and financial resilience in capital-intensive industries. This paper identifies and examines 10 key topics currently influencing regulatory cost of capital decisions, including climate change considerations, evolving methodologies for estimating the market risk premium, and the impact of diminishing publicly listed comparator firms. The study provides a comparative analysis of regulatory approaches from key jurisdictions such as Australia, New Zealand, and the UK, offering insights into best practices and emerging challenges. Additional areas of interest include the role of reasonableness checks, financeability testing, and competition in infrastructure investment. By addressing these pressing issues, this publication serves as a resource for regulators, businesses, and investors seeking to understand and navigate the complexities of cost of capital determinations.

About

Abstract

Regulatory Economics
2024
Warwick Anderson
Energy

ENWL Expensive Electricity?

Discover MCC Economics' detailed analysis of the Electricity North West Limited (ENWL) acquisition by Iberdrola, exploring valuation challenges, regulatory impacts, and the strategic synergies driving this €5 billion transaction.

Electricity North West Limited (ENWL), a regulated monopoly distributing electricity to 5 million customers across North West England, was acquired by Iberdrola in 2024 for €5 billion. MCC Economics’ publication examines the intricacies of this deal, including a significant 44% premium over ENWL’s Regulatory Asset Value (RAV). The analysis delves into ENWL’s financial inefficiencies, high cost of embedded debt, and regulatory challenges under Ofgem’s framework, juxtaposed with its strong equity performance and potential synergies with Iberdrola’s existing networks. This publication provides a comprehensive exploration of the value drivers, risks, and opportunities associated with the acquisition, offering valuable insights for investors and stakeholders in regulated utility markets.

This publication investigates the 2024 acquisition of Electricity North West Limited (ENWL) by Iberdrola, a transaction valued at €5 billion, including debt, and reflecting a substantial 44% premium over ENWL’s Regulatory Asset Value (RAV). ENWL serves as a regulated monopoly responsible for electricity distribution across North West England, supporting the UK’s decarbonisation goals. Key themes explored include ENWL’s financial challenges, regulatory constraints, and Iberdrola’s strategic motivations, including synergies with adjacent networks and growth potential in the transition to electrification. This case study offers critical insights into the valuation of utility assets, regulatory impacts, and the evolving energy landscape.

About

Abstract

Research and Data Analysis
2024
Rodrigo Malheiros Remor
Electricity

Phoenix Energy bargain? Anti-gas or anti-NI sentiment?

Explore MCC Economics’ analysis of the Phoenix Energy acquisition—a critical review of valuation, regulatory challenges, and the evolving energy landscape in Northern Ireland highlighting the risks and opportunities within the energy transition and the implications for investors in regulated utilities.

Dive into MCC Economics' in-depth review of the Phoenix Energy acquisition, focusing on its valuation, regulatory framework, and the broader energy market dynamics. With exclusive gas distribution rights across Greater Belfast, Phoenix Energy faces both challenges and opportunities in the shift towards renewable energy. This case study examines the company’s performance within Northern Ireland’s unique regulatory environment, the implications of stranded assets, and the potential pace of electrification. The report also considers the strategic value of this acquisition for CK Infrastructure Holdings and its alignment with global trends in sustainable energy.

This publication provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2024 acquisition of Phoenix Energy by CK Infrastructure Holdings, valued at approximately £760 million. Phoenix Energy operates as the sole gas distributor in Greater Belfast and has rebranded to reflect its renewable energy aspirations. The report evaluates the deal’s valuation metrics, highlighting a rare alignment with its regulatory asset base, and discusses the risks posed by stranded assets and the potential acceleration of electrification. It further explores the implications of Northern Ireland’s regulatory framework, which supports renewable gas solutions while promoting continued gas network connections. This case study serves as a key reference for stakeholders in mergers, acquisitions, and regulatory policy within the energy sector.

About

Abstract

Financial Strategy
2023
Rodrigo Malheiros Remor
Energy

Investment in Distributed Solar - A case for Abu Dhabi, UAE

Explore how distributed solar generation can transform Abu Dhabi’s energy landscape. Our report reveals the economic and environmental benefits of solar adoption, and accelerated progress toward the UAE's net-zero targets.

Abu Dhabi stands at the forefront of the UAE's clean energy transformation, and distributed solar generation plays a pivotal role in achieving its sustainability goals. Our report delivers a comprehensive analysis of the potential for rooftop and ground-mounted solar systems to reshape the emirate's energy future. The report examines the inefficiencies of electricity subsidies, compares solar costs with current tariffs, and evaluates the economic benefits of adopting distributed solar. It features real-world data on levelized cost of energy (LCOE), payback periods, and return on investment (IRR) for different consumer groups. By modeling growth scenarios, the report highlights how solar adoption could reduce government subsidies by AED 1.5 billion annually and avoid 5 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions by 2030. Packed with actionable insights and practical recommendations, this report is essential for policymakers, investors, and energy professionals looking to lead the UAE’s transition to a sustainable, clean energy future.

This report investigates the potential for distributed solar generation to drive Abu Dhabi's transition to clean energy while addressing the inefficiencies of current electricity subsidies. It explores the economic and environmental case for rooftop and ground-mounted solar systems, highlighting recent cost declines that make solar a viable alternative to fossil fuel-based power. By outlining a clear roadmap, the report positions distributed solar as a key driver of economic efficiency and environmental sustainability in Abu Dhabi.

About

Abstract

Economic Analysis
2021
PJ McCloskey
Solar

Comparative Analysis of ARIMA, VAR, and Linear Regression Models for UAE GDP Forecasting

Explore our publication on UAE GDP forecasting that provides actionable insights into selecting the best forecasting approach for both short-term and long-term economic planning in a dynamic and evolving economy.

Our comprehensive study on UAE GDP forecasting evaluates the effectiveness of three popular econometric models: ARIMA, VAR, and Linear Regression. Using real GDP data, the paper highlights each model's strengths and limitations over short-term and long-term horizons. The findings suggest that ARIMA is most effective for long-term forecasting, while Linear Regression shines in short-term, scenario-based predictions, provided accurate exogenous variable forecasts are available. Dive into this publication to gain valuable insights into forecasting methodologies that can enhance decision-making for businesses and policymakers in the UAE's dynamic economic landscape.

Forecasting GDP is crucial for economic planning and policymaking. This study compares the performance of three widely-used econometric models—ARIMA, VAR, and Linear Regression—using GDP data from the UAE. Employing a rolling forecast approach, we analyze the models’ accuracy over different time horizons. Results indicate ARIMA’s robust long-term forecasting capability, LR models perform better with short-term predictions, particularly when exogenous variable forecasts are accurate. These insights provide a valuable foundation for selecting forecasting models in the UAE’s evolving economy, suggesting ARIMA’s suitability for long-term outlooks and LR for short-term, scenario-based forecasts.

About

Abstract

Financial Modelling
2021
Rodrigo Malheiros Remor
Utilities

MCC's Submission on Accelerating Smart Meter Deployment

Drawing from international examples, the submission offers insights on balancing retailer flexibility with consumer protection and proposes alternative approaches for effective implementation.

MCC Economics and Finance has submitted a detailed response to the Australian Energy Market Commission’s (AEMC) proposed rules for accelerating smart meter deployment. Our submission examines several strategic trade-offs such as balancing consumer consent with retailer flexibility, flat tariffs versus cost-reflective pricing, and managing implementation costs while ensuring consumer benefits. It emphasises the importance of consumer-centric outcomes, particularly for vulnerable groups, and explores international examples from the UK, Finland, Germany, and France to highlight successful models of smart meter integration. MCC also raises questions about whether retailers are best positioned to lead the roll-out and suggests considering network companies for this role if early success is not achieved under the current proposal. The submission concludes by supporting the AEMC’s initiatives while advocating for ongoing evaluation and innovation to maximise consumer benefits.

This paper discusses the strategic trade-offs involved in implementing new rules, including balancing consumer protection with retailer flexibility and cost-effectiveness. It draws from international case studies to illustrate best practices for smart meter integration, particularly in relation to consumer benefits, technology, and phased implementation. The submission also questions whether retailers are best placed to lead the deployment and suggests considering network companies if needed. MCC fully supports the AEMC’s efforts and offers recommendations for ensuring the success of smart meter rollouts in Australia.

About

Abstract

Economic Analysis
2024
Warwick Anderson
Electricity

Case Studies

MCC Economics works with governments, regulators, and organisations across the UK, Europe, and the Middle East.Our case studies highlight how rigorous analysis, financial modelling, and policy insight have supported clients in making transparent, defensible, and effective decisions. Each project reflects our commitment to clarity, independence, and analytical precision.

Filter by:
Clear
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

UK Export Finance Economic Research

Explore how MCC helped UK Export Finance enhance its product development process by comparing UKEF's methods with those of peer organisations ranging from export credit agencies to corporate banks and public financial institutions.

Economic Analysis
2020
PJ McCloskey
Financal Services

UK Export Finance (UKEF), the UK’s export credit agency, engaged MCC Economics to conduct an in-depth benchmarking study to assess and refine its approach to product development. By comparing UKEF's methods with those of peer organisations—ranging from export credit agencies to corporate banks and public financial institutions—we helped UKEF identify areas of strength and key opportunities for innovation and improvement.

UK Export Finance (UKEF) sought to benchmark its product development process against a diverse set of peers, including export credit agencies, commercial banks, and fintechs. UKEF wanted to identify both its strengths and areas for improvement, understand how other institutions generate and evaluate product ideas, and gather insights to support internal reviews, audits, and future planning.

MCC delivered a comprehensive and collaborative review of UKEF’s product development approach, incorporating both quantitative benchmarking and qualitative insights from a wide network of international financial institutions. Our contributions included:

Strategic Design and Stakeholder Engagement

Designed a robust benchmarking questionnaire in collaboration with UKEF’s board and senior stakeholders, covering areas such as:

  • Digital integration
  • Customer centricity
  • Governance and approval flows
  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Innovation and agility in product development​

Comparative Analysis and Key Findings

Found UKEF’s governance to be in line with its peers, particularly in:

  • Risk management
  • Separate sign-off procedures
  • Following formal processes for approval and modification​

Identified areas with potential for improvement, including:

  • Customer engagement and feedback loops
  • Use of digital tools and automation
  • Application of structured product development frameworks like Agile or BAH models​​

Highlighted best practices from comparators, such as:

  • Annual customer ideation forums (BPIFrance)
  • Digitalisation of processes (SACE S.p.A.)
  • Agile sprints for product innovation (EDC and NatWest)​
  • Deliverables and Recommendations

Deliverables and Recommendations

Delivered a formal benchmarking report summarising findings and strategic recommendations for the UKEF Board, Internal Audit team, and Product Directors.

Recommended that UKEF:

  • Strengthen digital integration during early product design stages
  • Capture and apply structured customer feedback more effectively
  • Consider piloting and iterative design models where appropriate
  • Align internal review mechanisms with academic models such as Stage-Gate or BAH frameworks​

What the Client Needed?

DESNZ Offshore Wind Consultation Analysis

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analyzing stakeholder responses to the Offshore Wind National Policy Statement (NPS) consultations.

Consultation Analysis
2019
Sanah
Utilities

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analyzing stakeholder responses to the Offshore Wind National Policy Statement (NPS) consultations. Our in-depth thematic analysis, expert policy discussions, and comprehensive reporting informed the UK Government’s policy decisions, ensuring a balanced approach to energy security, climate commitments, and infrastructure development.

As part of the UK’s commitment to achieving Net Zero by 2050, DESNZ sought to update the Offshore Wind National Policy Statement (EN-3) to reflect evolving energy needs, environmental considerations, and regulatory challenges. To achieve this, DESNZ launched a public consultation and re-consultation process, receiving thousands of responses from key stakeholders, including energy industry representatives, environmental organisations and NGOs, planning and regulatory authorities, aviation, shipping, and seabed users, and local councils and community groups.

MCC played a pivotal role in reviewing, analyzing, and synthesizing the consultation responses, delivering:

1. Thematic and Quantitative Analysis of Stakeholder Responses

  • Processed and categorized thousands of responses, identifying recurring themes and stakeholder concerns.
  • Analyzed sentiment and trends, determining whether responses were urging action, supportive with reservations, or providing advice.
  • Extracted insights from key questions, including:
    • Environmental mitigation and compensation strategies.
    • Planning, consent, and licensing considerations.
    • Grid coordination and offshore wind network design.
    • Impacts on aviation, shipping, and other seabed users.

2. Expert Policy Engagement and Recommendations

  • Led expert discussions with DESNZ to interpret consultation findings and assess policy implications.
  • Mapped out stakeholder positions on controversial issues, such as:
    • The balance between offshore wind expansion and environmental protection.
    • The role of multi-purpose interconnectors (MPIs) and grid coordination.
    • The impact of aviation radar interference and maritime navigation.
  • Provided strategic policy recommendations, ensuring that DESNZ’s approach aligned with net-zero targets, energy security goals, and regulatory best practices.

3. Final Government Consultation Report

  • Authored a structured, data-driven report summarizing the consultation results.
  • Highlighted key takeaways, including stakeholder sentiment distribution and areas requiring further policy refinement.
  • Outlined government response options, helping DESNZ refine the Offshore Wind NPS (EN-3) for future implementation.

What the Client Needed?

DESNZ National Policy Statement Consultation Analysis

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analyzing thousands of stakeholder responses for the 2021 public consultation and the 2023 re-consultation on the Energy National Policy Statements.

Consultation Analysis
2018
Rodrigo Malheiros Rem
Aviation

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analysing thousands of stakeholder responses for the 2021 public consultation and the 2023 re-consultation on the Energy National Policy Statements. Our structured approach, data-driven insights, and expert recommendations helped shape the UK Government’s response, ensuring energy policies align with net-zero commitments and energy security objectives.

DESNZ sought expert analytical support to process, assess, and interpret responses from stakeholders regarding updates to the Energy National Policy Statements (NPSs). These NPSs guide the planning and regulation of nationally significant energy infrastructure projects, ensuring alignment with the UK’s Net Zero Strategy and British Energy Security Strategy (BESS).

MCC played a lead role in managing the consultation response process, delivering:

1. Project Management & Stakeholder Coordination

  • Developed and managed all project collateral, including project plans, timelines, methodology documentation, and budget schedules.
  • Led communication with DESNZ, providing weekly progress reports and acting as the central touchpoint for project updates.
  • Resourced and coordinated the MCC project team, ensuring efficient workflow and division of tasks.

2. Data Processing & Quality Assurance

  • Processed and reviewed thousands of responses submitted via Citizen Space and email.
  • Conducted extensive data cleansing, removing duplicates, correcting formatting errors, and ensuring all submissions were properly recorded.
  • Developed a master data table to consolidate stakeholder responses into a structured and searchable format.

3. Advanced Thematic & Quantitative Analysis

  • Performed thematic analysis to categorize responses into key policy areas, assessing levels of support and areas of concern.
  • Conducted quantitative analysis for closed questions, measuring statistical trends across respondent groups.
  • Utilized Python-based data extraction techniques to streamline the analysis process and extract insights from text, PDF, and Word submissions.

4. Expert Policy Evaluation & Government Engagement

  • Led discussions with DESNZ policy teams, providing in-depth insights on stakeholder positions and potential policy adjustments.
  • Mapped out key areas of regulatory alignment and divergence, highlighting stakeholder concerns on net-zero commitments, energy security, and infrastructure development.
  • Provided strategic recommendations on balancing economic, environmental, and energy priorities within the NPS updates.

5. Final Report & Government Response Preparation

  • Authored the final consultation report, presenting a structured, data-driven summary of public and industry feedback.
  • Developed government response templates, ensuring DESNZ could communicate policy decisions effectively.
  • Proofread and formatted final NPS documents.

What the Client Needed?

DESNZ Oil and Gas Consultation Analysis

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analyzing over 55,000 responses to the Climate Compatibility Checkpoint consultation for North Sea oil and gas licensing.

Consultation Analysis
2017
Sanah
Energy

Explore our case study to see how MCC supported the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) in analyzing over 55,000 responses to the Climate Compatibility Checkpoint consultation for North Sea oil and gas licensing. Our comprehensive review and thematic analysis provided key insights to shape the government’s policy response, ensuring a data-driven approach to future licensing decisions.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), formerly known as BEIS, required expert assistance in reviewing and analyzing public consultation responses for the Climate Compatibility Checkpoint for Future Oil and Gas Licensing. This checkpoint was introduced to evaluate whether future oil and gas licensing rounds align with the UK’s climate objectives, net-zero commitments, and energy security needs. The department needed a systematic approach to processing responses, quantitative and thematic analysis, a detailed view of cited documentation and a final consultation report.

MCC played a critical role in leading the consultation analysis, delivering:

1. Comprehensive Data Processing & Review

  • Processed 55,000+ responses, including standardized campaign submissions and unique stakeholder inputs.
  • Used data extraction techniques, including Python-based processing, to organize and categorize responses efficiently.
  • Reviewed evidence cited in responses, ensuring that all claims were cross-checked with reliable sources.

2. Thematic & Quantitative Analysis

  • Conducted thematic analysis to identify major areas of support and opposition across key questions.
  • Summarized closed-question responses, highlighting the percentage of respondents supporting different checkpoint tests.
  • Analyzed stakeholder perspectives on the Paris Agreement, energy security, investment risks, emissions benchmarks, and economic impact.

3. Policy Insights & Reporting

  • Authored the final government consultation report, providing structured summaries of stakeholder positions.
  • Outlined key areas where industry and public perspectives aligned or conflicted, allowing DESNZ to refine its policy approach.
  • Provided recommendations on policy trade-offs, balancing climate concerns, energy security, and economic considerations.

4. Addressing Key Consultation Themes

Through our analysis, we identified key recurring themes in responses, including:

  • Climate concerns: Many respondents cited the Paris Agreement, Climate Pact, and Net Zero commitments, arguing against further licensing.
  • Energy security arguments: Some respondents supported continued licensing, emphasizing domestic production over reliance on imports.
  • Checkpoint test criteria: Varied opinions emerged on how licensing decisions should be assessed, with debates on Scope 3 emissions, international benchmarking, and sector progress in energy transition technologies.

What the Client Needed?

NATS Financial Modelling and Analysis

Explore our case study to see how MCC helped NATS En Route and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) refine their financial modelling processes.

Financial Modelling
2020
PJ McCloskey
Aviation

Explore our case study to see how MCC helped NATS En Route and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) refine their financial modelling processes. From identifying critical calculation errors to improving methodologies and updating key inputs, our expertise ensured a more reliable framework for aviation price controls, addressing delays and strengthening financial decision-making.

In 2021, NATS En Route required an in-depth review of its financial model to assess the accuracy and reliability of recent modifications. The model had been updated to reflect the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism, which adjusts revenues based on fluctuations in air traffic and the significant decline in air traffic due to COVID-19, which had major financial implications for NATS. To ensure confidence in the financial projections, NATS needed a full validation of the financial model, ensuring that the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism and other adjustments were correctly implemented.

MCC played a pivotal role in helping NATS and the CAA strengthen their financial models, delivering:

  1. Comprehensive Model Review for NATS
    • Conducted an in-depth analysis of the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism and the model’s response to COVID-19-related traffic declines.
    • Identified 382 issues for NATS to investigate, highlighting areas where calculations and methodologies needed improvement.
    • Recommended new methods and updated data sources to ensure more accurate forecasting and decision-making.
  2. Board-Level Analysis and Recommendations
    • Reviewed key board presentations and conclusions to verify that they were supported by reliable model calculations.
    • Suggested methodology updates and refinements to improve the financial model’s credibility and accuracy.
  3. Support for CAA’s NR23 Price Control Model
    • Assisted the Civil Aviation Authority in designing, reviewing, and modifying a new model for NATS’ price control process.
    • Addressed financial model deficiencies that had delayed NR23 by six months, helping to bring the process back on track.
  4. Best Practice Implementation
    • Recommended model updates using industry best practices, ensuring future reliability and transparency.
    • Advised on the latest data sources and input methodologies to strengthen financial forecasting.

What the Client Needed?

Thistle Wind Partners UK

Explore our Thistle Wind Partners (TWP) case study to see how MCC developed a bespoke financial model to determine the Contracts for Difference (CfD) strike price.

Economic Analysis
2019
PJ McCloskey
Aviation

Explore our Thistle Wind Partners (TWP) case study to see how MCC developed a bespoke financial model to determine the Contracts for Difference (CfD) strike price. Our work supported TWP’s bid submission for the UK Government’s low-carbon electricity auction rounds, ensuring competitive pricing for the development of 2GW of offshore wind capacity.

Thistle Wind Partners (TWP) required expert financial modeling support to determine the CfD strike price for their bid submission in the UK Government’s low-carbon electricity generation auction rounds. With 2GW of offshore wind capacity under development, TWP required a precise and adaptable financial framework to navigate the competitive bidding landscape and secure government-backed CfD contracts.

MCC played a critical role in supporting TWP’s bid submission strategy by delivering:

  1. Development of a Custom CfD Bid Model
    • Built a financial model from scratch to determine the optimal CfD strike price.
    • Accounted for two separate offshore wind farms, each utilizing distinct technologies (floating and fixed-foundation).
    • Integrated project-specific costs, revenue forecasts, and operational assumptions to reflect real-world conditions.
  2. Comprehensive CfD Mechanism Analysis
    • Conducted a detailed review of the CfD framework to ensure full compliance with auction requirements.
    • Evaluated bid submission strategies based on government auction pricing trends and industry benchmarks.
  3. Scenario Analysis and Financial Forecasting
    • Sourced relevant operational and financing inputs to ensure accuracy in cost projections.
    • Designed a scenario analysis tool to test multiple assumptions, providing TWP with a flexible and data-driven decision-making framework.
    • Modeled the impact of financing structures, cost variations, and energy output fluctuations on the strike price.
  4. Bid Optimization Based on Target IRR
    • Calculated the CfD strike price based on the project’s target internal rate of return (IRR) to ensure financial viability.
    • Provided strategic recommendations to enhance bid competitiveness while balancing risk and return.

What the Client Needed?